“This Threat is Real and Serious”
Blog post Number 2 for COVID-19
James A. Zarzana
*
[This was drafted a few days ago, so some stats are behind. None have improved.]
*
I generally use Facebook for keeping up with friends and family. In the best of times, I try to avoid political posts, try not to be snarky, and try to spread humor (and, yes, PR for The Marsco Saga).
But, these are the worst of times.
I just “unfriended” someone. The other day, when he posted that the seasonal influenza of 2018 was worse than COVID-19, and that today’s virus was all a media hoax, I had enough. At first I wanted to respond sharply with the facts, then decided just to unfriend him.
Here is pretty much what I would have said if I had responded.
The 2018 seasonal flu season was extremely severe, the worst in a long time. It killed 80,000 Americans that year when an exceptionally high influenza toll usually runs about 35,000 to 55,000. The numbers were high that year for several reasons. One, the virus was just particularly nasty. Two, it caught the medical community off guard, especially the experts who make the yearly flu vaccine. Those researchers have to make a “best guess” on what to guard against with the yearly flu. Researchers make their guess months in advance so that enough vaccine can be produced. That year, getting ready for 2018, the guess was wrong. Even people who had the vaccine got sick, which is not supposed to happen.
But to compare the whole 2018 flu season to the COVID-19 death toll is not a fair comparison. The toll as it stood last Sunday (March 22, 2020) is 348 Americans dead. But it’s a false comparison. 80,000 to 348 suggests to the uninformed and unthinking how much worse the 2018 flu was than our epidemic today. This false analogy is not an indication of the severity of COVID-19.
And I’ve seen other posts about the COVID-19 being a hoax, a media invention, a Democratic plot. Some deniers say it is all hype and nonsense and panic. That “Big Pharma” is behind it somehow to make us all vaccinate. Don’t believe any such nonsense. The COVID-19 threat is real and serious.
Here are the numbers that concern the World Health Organization (the WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control (the CDC). COVID-19 is highly contagious; you can have it without showing symptoms. During the first week that you have it but are showing no symptoms, you can be spreading it. The first week you do have symptoms, you can also spread it. So someone with the virus, even a mild case, is highly contagious for two weeks.
The vast majority of those who get COVID-19 will have mild-to-moderate symptoms: fever, fatigue, shortness of breath, cough, and in about half the cases some bowel issues like diarrhea. Most people with these mild-to-moderate symptoms, about 80% of those infected, do not need to be hospitalized or even tested for the virus. They should stay home, avoid contact with your family in your home, rest, and take acetaminophen, not ibuprofen, for fever and body aches. Ride it out in isolation. Wash your hands often and thoroughly.
These symptoms, by the way, do resemble the seasonal influenza and sometimes a common cold or seasonal allergies. But remember, the contagious person may be infecting the next victim who will not suffer this disease with only mild-to-moderate symptoms. The elderly, those with an underlying medical condition, like diabetes or lung problems, may exhibit more severe and deadly symptoms. Also, this disease is regularly attacking healthy adults at an alarming rate.
In the end, most Americans may suffer through COVID-19 with only mild-to-moderate symptoms. No doubt. None in this group will need hospitalization.
Severe cases, however, are another story. About 20% of those infected will be serious cases. These cases begin to show signs of disorientation, a lack of interest in food, dehydration, high fever, serious cough, so much difficulty breathing that the patient may need a ventilator, which means hospitalization.
Here are the numbers to show just how serious this pandemic is. CDC numbers of the seasonal influenza: Mild season to a severe outbreak: 12,000 to 55,000 American deaths yearly. Note, 2018 was well above that with 80,000 deaths. Typically, 140,000 to 710,000 Americans get the influenza each year so seriously that we need hospitalization. In total, about 9.2 to 35.5 million Americans typically get the seasonal flu. About half of the US population gets their annual flu vaccine, which is the reason only about 10% of Americans get the flu in a severe season. And yes, the seasonal flu does kills its victims, but at about a 0.1% rate.
COVID-19 is a different virus altogether. Since we have no vaccine, it is hitting us much more widely than the seasonal flu. Here’s the CDC predictions for how the US outbreak may go.
In the population of the USA, about 330 million, the CDC and other research centers predict a 40% to 80% infection rate. This is what Governor Cuomo of New York has been saying, and he’s been making some drastic emergency measures based on those numbers.
Let me take 50% infection rate as a means of explanation. If 50% of us get the COVID-19 virus, then that’s 165 million infected, well above the 9.2 to 35.5 million annually who have the seasonal flu. Remember that 0.1% death rate for seasonal flu? In some countries the death rate for COVID-19 is ranging from 5% to 10%.
Potentially, then, 165 million may be infected just in the USA. If 20% need hospitalization—that would be about 33 million Americans seriously ill at once. With anything approaching these numbers, our health care system will be overwhelmed, stretched well beyond capacity. To hear governors and state health officials use the word “tsunami” to describe this pandemic is NOT an exaggeration. Our hospitals simply cannot handle even a fraction of 33 million patients. There just aren’t enough beds and ventilators and staff for that. And even at a modest 3% death rate here in the USA, that 50% infection rate may produce close to 5 million deaths.
The Great Influenza of 1918, the so-called Spanish Flu, killed 675,000 Americans in a country of 120 million. It did so in about an 18-month period. The death rate in the UK in that pandemic was 5%. The death rate in poor counties like Italy and Spain was closer to 10%. My use of 3% death rate for COVID-19 is “low-balling” the predicted death rate.
Now, I am not trying to cause panic. But I am trying to inform people that this is a serious pandemic. It is hitting everywhere around the globe. Governors who are closing down states are trying to minimize the number of infected cases to decrease the numbers going into the hospitals at once. Five states have now implemented travel bans and business restrictions to stop the spread: California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Other states have imposed some travel and business restrictions. Even some mayors, like South Bend’s, have ordered no unnecessary travel in their municipalities. In some states, bars and restaurants, gyms and movie theaters are closed. No large gatherings are permitted. Many concerts and conferences are canceled. Sporting events and tournaments have been called off. In Indiana, the governor just ordered Hoosiers to stay at home until April 7th. All in an effort to slow the spread of this highly contagious disease.
And note: There are really no federal guidelines at this point. None. States are having to go it alone.
I mentioned how little the US Federal Government is doing because it is a serious break with how the Feds have confronted others disasters in the past. President Trump put a science-denier in charge of the federal response. Trump has called this a hoax, a way to try to impeach him, a Democratic plot, and a Chinese virus. He’s blamed President Obama time and again for the failure of his own response.
Leaders lead. They make tough decisions. They ask the American people to sacrifice and work together to face this. Instead, Trump asked us to believe that it will all go away one day without the federal government lifting a finger. The DOW has yet to believe him. Those companies laying off thousands aren’t buying his spiel.
The whole country is, and will continue to, suffer from Trump’s lack of leadership.
I certainly hope I am wrong. I hope the graphs, based on the reality of how the virus hit China and Italy, predicting a tsunami of severe sickness and death in the USA are wrong. I hope hospitals find the beds and respirators and staff and resilience to deal with all this. I hope those laid off from work will not lose their livelihoods and homes and life savings. I hope those young people especially, who seem to think this is hitting just older folks, realize this naïve notion is a myth. In Italy today (NBC News Sunday Morning), more and more young people are being admitted to Italian hospitals; once there, they are dying at the same rate as older victims.
Please take this pandemic seriously. Social distance yourself. Only go to the grocery store and if needed the pharmacy. Take your temperature regularly throughout the day to monitor your health. Wash your hands. Distance yourself from others. Don’t watch FOX News, which is downplaying this pandemic and often spreading disinformation. Listen to the best sources, like the CDC and WHO and NPR and serious, legitimate and credible news agencies.
I hope in a few months I am relieved because this blog’s predictions have been proven to be inaccurate and seriously off base. In the meantime, please stay safe and act accordingly because this threat is real and serious.
Blog post Number 2 for COVID-19
James A. Zarzana
*
[This was drafted a few days ago, so some stats are behind. None have improved.]
*
I generally use Facebook for keeping up with friends and family. In the best of times, I try to avoid political posts, try not to be snarky, and try to spread humor (and, yes, PR for The Marsco Saga).
But, these are the worst of times.
I just “unfriended” someone. The other day, when he posted that the seasonal influenza of 2018 was worse than COVID-19, and that today’s virus was all a media hoax, I had enough. At first I wanted to respond sharply with the facts, then decided just to unfriend him.
Here is pretty much what I would have said if I had responded.
The 2018 seasonal flu season was extremely severe, the worst in a long time. It killed 80,000 Americans that year when an exceptionally high influenza toll usually runs about 35,000 to 55,000. The numbers were high that year for several reasons. One, the virus was just particularly nasty. Two, it caught the medical community off guard, especially the experts who make the yearly flu vaccine. Those researchers have to make a “best guess” on what to guard against with the yearly flu. Researchers make their guess months in advance so that enough vaccine can be produced. That year, getting ready for 2018, the guess was wrong. Even people who had the vaccine got sick, which is not supposed to happen.
But to compare the whole 2018 flu season to the COVID-19 death toll is not a fair comparison. The toll as it stood last Sunday (March 22, 2020) is 348 Americans dead. But it’s a false comparison. 80,000 to 348 suggests to the uninformed and unthinking how much worse the 2018 flu was than our epidemic today. This false analogy is not an indication of the severity of COVID-19.
And I’ve seen other posts about the COVID-19 being a hoax, a media invention, a Democratic plot. Some deniers say it is all hype and nonsense and panic. That “Big Pharma” is behind it somehow to make us all vaccinate. Don’t believe any such nonsense. The COVID-19 threat is real and serious.
Here are the numbers that concern the World Health Organization (the WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control (the CDC). COVID-19 is highly contagious; you can have it without showing symptoms. During the first week that you have it but are showing no symptoms, you can be spreading it. The first week you do have symptoms, you can also spread it. So someone with the virus, even a mild case, is highly contagious for two weeks.
The vast majority of those who get COVID-19 will have mild-to-moderate symptoms: fever, fatigue, shortness of breath, cough, and in about half the cases some bowel issues like diarrhea. Most people with these mild-to-moderate symptoms, about 80% of those infected, do not need to be hospitalized or even tested for the virus. They should stay home, avoid contact with your family in your home, rest, and take acetaminophen, not ibuprofen, for fever and body aches. Ride it out in isolation. Wash your hands often and thoroughly.
These symptoms, by the way, do resemble the seasonal influenza and sometimes a common cold or seasonal allergies. But remember, the contagious person may be infecting the next victim who will not suffer this disease with only mild-to-moderate symptoms. The elderly, those with an underlying medical condition, like diabetes or lung problems, may exhibit more severe and deadly symptoms. Also, this disease is regularly attacking healthy adults at an alarming rate.
In the end, most Americans may suffer through COVID-19 with only mild-to-moderate symptoms. No doubt. None in this group will need hospitalization.
Severe cases, however, are another story. About 20% of those infected will be serious cases. These cases begin to show signs of disorientation, a lack of interest in food, dehydration, high fever, serious cough, so much difficulty breathing that the patient may need a ventilator, which means hospitalization.
Here are the numbers to show just how serious this pandemic is. CDC numbers of the seasonal influenza: Mild season to a severe outbreak: 12,000 to 55,000 American deaths yearly. Note, 2018 was well above that with 80,000 deaths. Typically, 140,000 to 710,000 Americans get the influenza each year so seriously that we need hospitalization. In total, about 9.2 to 35.5 million Americans typically get the seasonal flu. About half of the US population gets their annual flu vaccine, which is the reason only about 10% of Americans get the flu in a severe season. And yes, the seasonal flu does kills its victims, but at about a 0.1% rate.
COVID-19 is a different virus altogether. Since we have no vaccine, it is hitting us much more widely than the seasonal flu. Here’s the CDC predictions for how the US outbreak may go.
In the population of the USA, about 330 million, the CDC and other research centers predict a 40% to 80% infection rate. This is what Governor Cuomo of New York has been saying, and he’s been making some drastic emergency measures based on those numbers.
Let me take 50% infection rate as a means of explanation. If 50% of us get the COVID-19 virus, then that’s 165 million infected, well above the 9.2 to 35.5 million annually who have the seasonal flu. Remember that 0.1% death rate for seasonal flu? In some countries the death rate for COVID-19 is ranging from 5% to 10%.
Potentially, then, 165 million may be infected just in the USA. If 20% need hospitalization—that would be about 33 million Americans seriously ill at once. With anything approaching these numbers, our health care system will be overwhelmed, stretched well beyond capacity. To hear governors and state health officials use the word “tsunami” to describe this pandemic is NOT an exaggeration. Our hospitals simply cannot handle even a fraction of 33 million patients. There just aren’t enough beds and ventilators and staff for that. And even at a modest 3% death rate here in the USA, that 50% infection rate may produce close to 5 million deaths.
The Great Influenza of 1918, the so-called Spanish Flu, killed 675,000 Americans in a country of 120 million. It did so in about an 18-month period. The death rate in the UK in that pandemic was 5%. The death rate in poor counties like Italy and Spain was closer to 10%. My use of 3% death rate for COVID-19 is “low-balling” the predicted death rate.
Now, I am not trying to cause panic. But I am trying to inform people that this is a serious pandemic. It is hitting everywhere around the globe. Governors who are closing down states are trying to minimize the number of infected cases to decrease the numbers going into the hospitals at once. Five states have now implemented travel bans and business restrictions to stop the spread: California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. Other states have imposed some travel and business restrictions. Even some mayors, like South Bend’s, have ordered no unnecessary travel in their municipalities. In some states, bars and restaurants, gyms and movie theaters are closed. No large gatherings are permitted. Many concerts and conferences are canceled. Sporting events and tournaments have been called off. In Indiana, the governor just ordered Hoosiers to stay at home until April 7th. All in an effort to slow the spread of this highly contagious disease.
And note: There are really no federal guidelines at this point. None. States are having to go it alone.
I mentioned how little the US Federal Government is doing because it is a serious break with how the Feds have confronted others disasters in the past. President Trump put a science-denier in charge of the federal response. Trump has called this a hoax, a way to try to impeach him, a Democratic plot, and a Chinese virus. He’s blamed President Obama time and again for the failure of his own response.
Leaders lead. They make tough decisions. They ask the American people to sacrifice and work together to face this. Instead, Trump asked us to believe that it will all go away one day without the federal government lifting a finger. The DOW has yet to believe him. Those companies laying off thousands aren’t buying his spiel.
The whole country is, and will continue to, suffer from Trump’s lack of leadership.
I certainly hope I am wrong. I hope the graphs, based on the reality of how the virus hit China and Italy, predicting a tsunami of severe sickness and death in the USA are wrong. I hope hospitals find the beds and respirators and staff and resilience to deal with all this. I hope those laid off from work will not lose their livelihoods and homes and life savings. I hope those young people especially, who seem to think this is hitting just older folks, realize this naïve notion is a myth. In Italy today (NBC News Sunday Morning), more and more young people are being admitted to Italian hospitals; once there, they are dying at the same rate as older victims.
Please take this pandemic seriously. Social distance yourself. Only go to the grocery store and if needed the pharmacy. Take your temperature regularly throughout the day to monitor your health. Wash your hands. Distance yourself from others. Don’t watch FOX News, which is downplaying this pandemic and often spreading disinformation. Listen to the best sources, like the CDC and WHO and NPR and serious, legitimate and credible news agencies.
I hope in a few months I am relieved because this blog’s predictions have been proven to be inaccurate and seriously off base. In the meantime, please stay safe and act accordingly because this threat is real and serious.
Italy in lockdown
Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York taking the lead in fighting this outbreak. New York is one of the centers of the outbreak.
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